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Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
 
Showing 1 - 10 of 109.
Working Paper
xtcipsunb: The CIPS Panel Unit Root Test for Unbalanced Panel Data
This paper develops and demonstrates the command xtcipsunb, which implements the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test (CIPS) from Pesaran (2007) and Pesaran, Smith and Yamagata (2013) for unbalanced panels.
July 07, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
International comparisons show AI effect on productivity
Because AI use varies across countries, we can draw on international data to investigate the relationship between AI exposure and productivity growth at the sector level. The positive relationship in the U.S. fits a pattern visible among countries and appears related to high AI use.
July 07, 2026
Mexico Economic Update
Mexican economy gains some momentum
Mexico’s monthly GDP estimate increased in April, following an annualized 2.4 percent contraction in output in the first quarter of 2026.
June 26, 2026
Working Paper
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
Working Paper
The Interest Rate Effects of Government Debt and Deficits: Does Domestic Borrowing Have a Different Impact Than Foreign Borrowing?
This paper investigates the relationship between government debt and interest rates and asks whether the effect of government debt on interest rates depends on whether that debt is financed at home or abroad.
June 22, 2026
Southwest Economy
Oil prices are up; whither the Texas boom?
Texas tends to report higher employment and output when oil prices sharply increase. But uncertainty regarding the duration of elevated prices could mute such impacts from the price shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
June 05, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Hormuz closure offsets tariff reversal; U.S. left with upside inflation risk
A pair of important and opposing trade shocks hit the U.S. economy during the first quarter of 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a portion of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision on Feb. 20 lowered average U.S. import tariffs by roughly 4.8 percentage points.
June 02, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Fed’s forecasting edge ebbed prepandemic, persisted in downside inflation surprises
We compare Federal Reserve Board staff forecasts with professional forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators for headline Consumer Price Index inflation. The relevant question then is not whether inflation forecasts matter, but rather what their content reveals.
May 21, 2026
Southwest Economy
Trader remains bullish on cattle despite economic, contagion threats
Leslie Callahan, a co-founder and principal of cattle trading firm Crossroads Cattle, discusses the reasons behind record-high beef prices and challenges facing the industry.
May 20, 2026
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