Texas Employment Forecast - Dallasfed.org Skip to main content News and EventsCareers All Authors Series Topics Economy Economy Data Regional data U.S. data International data Energy data DataBasics Research Data Center (RDC)-- Regional economy Texas New Mexico Louisiana Dallas Fed Surveys Economic analysis Beige Book Economic indicators Texas Economic Update Texas Employment Forecast U.S. Economy Trimmed Mean PCE Market Value of Government Debt Weekly Economic Index International Economy Database of Global Economic Indicators International House Price Database Mexico Update Global Institute Events Conferences Global Perspectives Energy Center for Energy and the Economy Dallas Fed Energy Survey Energy in the Eleventh District Energy Indicators Energy Slideshow Publications Dallas Fed Economics Southwest Economy Southwest Economy Podcast Special reports Working papers Economists Focus areas/topics Community Community Communities blog In-depth reports Small Business Credit Survey Community topics Small business Workforce development Community Reinvestment Act Advance Together initiative Digital access initiative Our people Events Education Education Classroom Resources Building Wealth lesson plans Classroom-ready presentations Federal Reserve Education Publications Building Wealth Everyday Economics Navigate: Exploring College and Careers Student programs Personal finance workshop -- Events Tours information Banking Banking Banker resources Consumer resources Reserves maintenance Risk and surveillance Lending Discount Window Payments & financial services FedNow Financial services Reporting Financial reporting Regulatory reporting Structure reporting (NIC) Contacts Events Publications and reports Dallas Fed Banking Banking Conditions Survey Current Banking Risks Eleventh District Banking Trends Banking and finance articles About us About Us What we do Reserve Banks and the Fed Counties in our district Our branches El Paso Houston San Antonio Holiday schedule Work with us Transparency President Lorie Logan About Lorie Listening in 360° Calendar Public speaking events Our people Leadership team Regional executives Boards of directors Economists Dallas Fed advisory councils Federal Advisory Council Office of Minority and Women Inclusion Speeches Lorie Logan speeches and publications Leadership speeches Request a speaker Connect with us Attend our events Visit our exhibits Help us track the economy Ask a question or find a contact Do business with us News and EventsCareers HomeEconomyTexas Employment Forecast Economy Economy home Data Regional data U.S. data International data Energy data DataBasics Research Data Center BigTex High-Performance Computing Regional Regional economy Texas New Mexico Louisiana Dallas Fed surveys Agricultural Banking Conditions Dallas Fed Energy Texas Manufacturing Texas Service Sector Economic analysis Beige Book Economic Indicators Texas Economic Update Texas Employment Forecast Mexico and border region All regional analysis Southwest Economy U.S. U.S. economy home Trimmed Mean PCE Market Value of Government Debt Weekly Economic Index All U.S. data International Global Institute International economy International House Price Database Database of Global Economic Indicators International data Energy Center for Energy and the Economy Energy research Dallas Fed Energy Survey Energy in the Eleventh District Energy Indicators Energy slideshow Publications Dallas Fed Economics Southwest Economy Special reports Working papers More publications Our people Economists Research analysts Visiting scholars Events Conferences Global Perspectives Seminars Request a speaker Focus areas/topics Texas Employment Forecast September 15, 2023 The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.9 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.6 to 3.3 percent. The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. The forecast suggests that 399,600 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2023 will be 14.1 million (Chart 1). It implies growth for the rest of the year will be an annualized 2.1 percent. Texas employment grew an annualized 1.1 percent month over month in August, adding 12,400 jobs, while July growth was revised down to 2.5 percent. “Job growth slowed in August, and July growth was revised down, suggesting the labor market may finally be cooling off after registering such strong growth in the past two years,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. “Surprisingly, private sector job growth was near zero in August. Looking by sector, there were increases in oil and gas, leisure and hospitality, financial services, other services, manufacturing and government employment. Information services, education and health services, professional business services, trade and transportation, and construction reported job losses.” The Texas Leading Index decreased over the three months through August (Chart 2). Changes in the index components were mixed; significant negative contributors were decreases in the help-wanted index and the U.S. leading index and higher new unemployment claims. In contrast, increases in the Texas stock index, the real price of West Texas Intermediate oil and well permits, and a decrease in the Texas value of the dollar pushed the index higher. Average hours worked did not register any change. Next release: October 20, 2023 Methodology The Dallas Fed’s Texas employment forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. The forecast is based on the average of four models. Three models are vector autoregressions where Texas payroll employment is regressed on the lags of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, the U.S. leading index and the Texas Leading Index, respectively. The fourth model is an autoregressive distributed lag model with regression of payroll employment on lags of payroll employment, current and lagged values of U.S. GDP growth and WTI oil prices, and Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations through March 2023. Forecasts of Texas payroll employment from this model also use as inputs forecasts of U.S. GDP growth from Blue Chip Economic Indicators and WTI oil price futures. All models include four COVID-19 dummy variables (March–June 2020). For additional details, see dallasfed.org/research/forecast/. The Dallas Fed Texas Employment Forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. The forecast reported above is a point estimate with 80 percent confidence bands; in other words, the true forecast lies within the bands on Chart 1 with 80 percent probability. The Dallas Fed Texas Employment Forecasting Model is based on a transfer function that utilizes past changes in state employment along with past changes in the Dallas Fed Texas Leading Index (TLI). Changes in the TLI have an impact on employment with a lead time of three months, and the effect dies out slowly over time. The regression coefficients on lagged changes in employment and the TLI are highly statistically significant, and the model as a whole has been accurate relative to other forecasters over the past two decades. The forecasting model has been in use at the Dallas Fed since the early 1990s, and the employment forecast has been published in the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast (WBCF) since 1994. Phillips and Lopez (2009) show that the model has been the most accurate in forecasting Texas job growth relative to other forecasters in the WBCF. In particular, the model had the lowest root mean squared error and has been the closest to the actual the most times (nine of the last 17 years) out of five forecasters that have consistently participated in the survey. For more details about the model and its performance, see “An Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasting Performance Across 10 Western U.S. States,” by Keith R. Phillips and Joaquin Lopez, Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 34, no. 2–3, December 2009.-- Share this Contact Information For more information about the Texas Employment Forecast, contact Luis Torres at luis.torres@dal.frb.org. Texas Employment Forecast Forecast archive Forecast Methodology -- Related Resources Texas Economic Indicators Seasonally Adjusted & Benchmarked Texas Employment Data – Total Seasonally Adjusted Metro Unemployment Rates Texas Employment Data – All Series Texas Leading Index Subscribe for email alerts Subscribe -- Quick links Global Institute Building Wealth Banking blog Communities blog Economics blog Visit us Publications About us Transparency Holiday schedule Careers Office of Minority and Women Inclusion Contact us Frequently asked questions Locations and teams Media relations Vendors and suppliers Website feedback Stay informed Get analysis, research, resources and event information delivered directly to your inbox. Subscribe Email address Sign Up -- Follow the Dallas Fed 2200 N. Pearl St., Dallas, Texas 75201 P: 214.922.6000 or 800.333.4460-- expand_less Top 2200 N. Pearl St., Dallas, Texas 75201214.922.6000 or 800.333.4460Terms of UsePrivacy Notice