The long and the short of FOMC projections | FRED Blog
Skip to main content
Explore Our Apps
FRED
Tools and resources to find and use economic data worldwide
FRASER
U.S. financial, economic, and banking history
ALFRED
Vintages of economic data from specific dates in history
CASSIDI
View banking market concentrations and perform HHI analysis
Release Calendar
Tools
FRED Add-in for Excel
FRED API
FRED Mobile Apps
News
Blog
About
What is FRED
Tutorials
Digital Badges
Contact Us
My Account
Explore Our Apps
Explore Our Apps
FRED
Tools and resources to find and use economic data worldwide
FRASER
U.S. financial, economic, and banking history
ALFRED
Vintages of economic data from specific dates in history
CASSIDI
View banking market concentrations and perform HHI analysis
STL Fed Home Page
Release Calendar
Tools
FRED Add-in for Excel
FRED API
FRED Mobile Apps
News
Blog
About
What is FRED
Tutorials
Digital Badges
Contact Us
Search FRED Blog
Search for:
Recent Posts
US manufacturing employment is down, but each state has its own story
Real GDP growth by state: First quarter 2026
Primary deficits: a short history
What US assets are held overseas?
Durable goods inflation and effective tariffs
Recent St. Louis Fed research
US manufacturing employment is down, but each state has its own story
Real GDP growth by state: First quarter 2026
Primary deficits: a short history
What US assets are held overseas?
Durable goods inflation and effective tariffs
Archives
July 2026
June 2026
May 2026
April 2026
March 2026
February 2026
January 2026
December 2025
November 2025
October 2025
September 2025
August 2025
July 2025
June 2025
May 2025
April 2025
March 2025
February 2025
January 2025
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
The FRED® Blog
The long and the short of FOMC projections
Posted on February 4, 2016
For several years, FRED has included the FOMC’s projections for the main economic aggregates. FRED recently added data on projections for the federal funds rate, one of the main policy targets considered by the FOMC. Several projections are recorded, with the two main categories being short run and long run. The graph above, which shows current data, deserves an explanation because the time stamps for the data points on each series have a very different meanings.
The blue line depicts the FOMC’s forecasts of the federal funds rate for the short run: Each data point corresponds to the first of the year for each year within the “forecast window.” This window begins at the time the forecast is made and extends three years ahead: The latest forecast covers Jan. 1, 2015, through Jan. 1, 2018. Thus, it shows how the FOMC believes the federal funds rate will evolve over the period. When the next forecast is released—for Jan. 1, 2016, through Jan. 1, 2019—this entire series could change, depending on what FOMC members see through that window.
The red line is another story. First, it applies to a more distant future, showing what the FOMC believes will be the long-run federal funds rate, beyond four years from now. Second, the data points correspond to when the forecast was released. Today, this series includes a total of three forecasts, each made at different points in time for the same object: what the federal funds rate will be beyond fours years from now. With the next release, one more data point will be added to this series.
How this graph was created: From the release (see the above link), select the desired series and click “Add to Graph.”
Suggested by Christian Zimmermann
View on FRED, series used in this post:
FEDTARRM, FEDTARRMLR
Tagged FEDTARRM, FEDTARRMLR
--
Back to Top
Filter
0
Subscribe to the FRED newsletter
Subscribe
Follow us
Saint Louis Fed linkedin page
Saint Louis Fed facebook page
Saint Louis Fed X page
Saint Louis Fed YouTube page
 
Need Help?
Questions or Comments
FRED Help
Legal
Privacy Notice & Policy