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US manufacturing employment is down, but each state has its own story
Real GDP growth by state: First quarter 2026
Primary deficits: a short history
What US assets are held overseas?
Durable goods inflation and effective tariffs
Recent St. Louis Fed research
US manufacturing employment is down, but each state has its own story
Real GDP growth by state: First quarter 2026
Primary deficits: a short history
What US assets are held overseas?
Durable goods inflation and effective tariffs
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US manufacturing employment is down, but each state has its own story
Posted on July 16, 2026
From last May to this May, manufacturing employment decreased by 0.4%. This number may seem small, but it’s a nationwide figure that can hide considerable variation across US states. So, in the FRED map above, we show state-specific numbers for manufacturing employment as of May 2026.
Most states are in negative territory, which is not surprising when the national number indicates a decrease. And, at the state level, a factory or two opening or closing can have a big impact, especially if the state is small or doesn’t have a large manufacturing base to begin with. Here are the highlights:
Twelve states grew, including Rhode Island (+1.5%), Louisiana (+2%), and Connecticut (+3%).
Three states didn’t change at all (0% growth).
The rest of the states declined, some by quite a bit: Nebraska (-4.6%), Virginia (-4.9%), Alaska (-5.6%), and the District of Columbia (-9.1%).
How this map was created: Search FRED for “manufacturing employment” and pick any seasonally adjusted, state-level series. Then click on the map button, followed by the “Edit map” button. Change the units to “Percent change from year ago,” the data group by “User defined method,” setting values at -4, -2, 0, 2, and 4. Change colors for each category according to your taste.
Suggested by Christian Zimmermann.
Real GDP growth by state: First quarter 2026
Posted on July 13, 2026
On June 25, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released real GDP data for all US states for the first quarter of 2026. The FRED map above shows the annualized growth rates from the previous quarter: Red denotes contraction (less than 0% growth), light green denotes slow growth (0% to 2%), and dark green denotes stronger growth (>2% to 5%).
Highlights
47 of 50 state economies grew in the first quarter. The national average was 2.1% annualized growth.
The median state (West Virginia) grew at 1.4%, which is below the national average, and 33 states had slower growth than the national average.
Washington had the fastest annualized growth, at 4.5%.
South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa contracted, with South Dakota experiencing the steepest contraction, at –1.6% annualized.
The St. Louis Fed’s Eighth District states all grew in the first quarter: Four states were slower than the national average (Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee), and three were faster (Arkansas, Indiana, and Mississippi).
Note: These data are subject to future revision by the source, with an annual revision the following March. Our ALFRED database records vintages of the data, so users can view the data as they appeared at various points in history. The link takes you to real GDP for Missouri, as of June 25, 2026.
How this map was created: Search FRED for “Real Total Gross Domestic Product for Missouri” and click the first available series. Click the “View Map” button and then the blue “Edit Map” button. Modify the units to “Compounded Annual Rate of Change.” Use “Format” to switch the number of color groups to 3, with the data grouped by “User Defined Method”; then define the scales to be 2 and 5. For values less than 0, choose red for contraction; for values less than 2, choose light green to show slight growth; for values less than 5, choose dark green to show moderate growth.
Suggested by John Fuller and Charles Gascon.
Primary deficits: a short history
Posted on July 9, 2026
Primary vs total deficit
The US federal government maintains a deficit. That is, it borrows during periods when it collects less in taxes than it spends. There are two main measures of deficits. Our first FRED graph, above, plots the total deficit (solid blue line) and the primary deficit (dashed green line). What’s the difference?
The total deficit is equal to the difference between government revenues and expenditures. It represents the amount of new borrowing in a given period. The primary deficit is the difference between revenues and noninterest outlays. Or, equivalently, the total deficit excluding interest payments on existing federal debt. This means we look at only current revenues and current expenditures, setting aside this period’s interest payments on its past debt.
The primary deficit is often a more useful metric for assessing fiscal policy because it focuses on today’s budgetary choices rather than reflecting on the burden of past decisions.
Three observations from the historical record
Our second FRED graph, above, plots the total and primary deficits as a share of GDP. Note that deficit and interest data are reported for a fiscal year, while GDP is reported on a calendar year.
Expressing deficits as a percentage of GDP provides crucial context by showing us how large the deficit is relative to the overall economy. Three patterns stand out in the historical data:
The WWII spike and recovery: Both the primary and total deficits spiked dramatically during World War II as the government borrowed heavily to finance the war effort. When military spending declined after the war’s end, the two deficits fell accordingly. Notably, in some of the immediate postwar years, both deficits became negative, which we’d refer to as a primary surplus and a total surplus. During those years, the federal government was partly paying down the war debt it had accumulated.
The most recent surplus episode: The one other post-WWII episode with an extended surplus (that is, an extended negative primary deficit) was during the 1990s. This period had strong economic growth, rising revenues, and restrained growth in federal spending.
The gap narrows when interest rates are low: The difference between the primary and total deficit depends importantly on the interest rates on government debt. When rates are low, interest payments typically shrink and the two deficit measures converge at least somewhat. When those interest rates rise, the gap tends to widen. Maturity also matters here: If much of the debt is short-term or coming due soon, higher interest rates pass through to federal interest payments faster than if most debt is locked in at longer maturities.
How these graphs were created: First graph: Search FRED for “Federal Surplus or Deficit” and select the Annual, Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted series. Under “Customize data,” enter the formula -a. Click on the Edit Graph button and select the “Add Line” tab to search for “Federal Surplus or Deficit” again. Don’t forget to click on “Add data series.” Next, under “Customize data,” search for “Federal Outlays: Interest” and add it to the graph. Then enter the formula -(a+b). Second graph: Repeat the steps for the first graph. Under “Customize data,” search for “Gross Domestic Product” and add it to each series. Then enter the formula -a/(b*1000)*100 for the first line and -(a+b)/(c*1000)*100 for the second.
Suggested by Bill Dupor and Melanie LeTourneau.
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